I knew Jay Leno wouldn’t last in primetime

Last September as the fall TV season was starting to roll, I made this prediction: Jay Leno’s new TV show wouldn’t be successful in a primetime slot.  My reasoning for my prediction is this, and I’m sticking to it:

In the Tonight Show time slot just after the late-night news, the competition is this: David Letterman (CBS) and Nightline (ABC).  All the shows at that hour are basically budget shows airing 5 nights a week.

Shifting to the primetime slot, 5 nights a week, just before the late-night news, and the competition is: CSI Miami, Castle,  The Good Wife, The Forgotten, CSI: NY, Ugly Betty, The Mentalist, Private Practice, NUMB3RS, and 20/20.

Basically, by airing Jay Leno 5 nights a week at primetime, NBC mistakenly thought that they could create a low budget show every day that could compete with higher budget shows which longer production cycles.