Best democrat for swing states
by Jacob on May 19, 2008, under Politics
Hillary Clinton’s latest claim why she is the better candidate:
“The states that I’ve won total 300 electoral votes,” she told about 300 people in a high school gymnasium in Maysville, the birthplace of the actor George Clooney. “The question is who can win 270 electoral votes? My opponent has won states totaling 217 electoral votes.” (Source: New York Times)
Additionally, Clinton discounts Obama’s wins in red states: states that traditionally vote republican, such as Utah, Idaho, Texas, and others.
While I believe Clinton’s claims are somewhat silly, I’ll humor the idea for just a moment to do some of my own math.
There are 8 states who have, in the last four presidential elections, voted for the republican candidate twice, and the democratic candidate twice. These states are: Nevada, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Ohio. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_states_and_blue_states)
Now if we consider these 8 swing states, the number of electoral college votes each of these states contributes toward the general presidential election, and the democratic candidate who had the most popular vote, we arrive at these numbers:
- Nevada, 5 votes, won by Clinton
- Louisiana, 9 votes, won by Obama
- Arkansas, 6 votes, won by Clinton
- Mississippi, 11 votes, won by Obama
- Tennessee, 11 votes, won by Clinton
- Kentucky, 8 votes, yet to be determined
- West Virginia, 5 votes, won by Clinton
- Ohio, 20 votes, won by Obama
The totals are: Clinton - 27, Obama - 40.
These numbers seem to indicate that Obama has the best chance to pick up more electoral college votes from these swing states.
Even if we broaden our definition of a swing state to include any state that has been mixed in the presidential voting anytime in the last four elections, Obama still beats Clinton, 71 to 57.
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