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“The states that I’ve won total 300 electoral votes,” she told about 300 people in a high school gymnasium in Maysville, the birthplace of the actor George Clooney. “The question is who can win 270 electoral votes? My opponent has won states totaling 217 electoral votes.” (Source: New York Times)

Additionally, Clinton discounts Obama’s wins in red states: states that traditionally vote republican, such as Utah, Idaho, Texas, and others.

While I believe Clinton’s claims are somewhat silly, I’ll humor the idea for just a moment to do some of my own math.

There are 8 states who have, in the last four presidential elections, voted for the republican candidate twice, and the democratic candidate twice. These states are: Nevada, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Ohio. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_states_and_blue_states)

Now if we consider these 8 swing states, the number of electoral college votes each of these states contributes toward the general presidential election, and the democratic candidate who had the most popular vote, we arrive at these numbers:

• Nevada, 5 votes, won by Clinton
• Louisiana, 9 votes, won by Obama
• Arkansas, 6 votes, won by Clinton
• Mississippi, 11 votes, won by Obama
• Tennessee, 11 votes, won by Clinton
• Kentucky, 8 votes, yet to be determined
• West Virginia, 5 votes, won by Clinton
• Ohio, 20 votes, won by Obama

The totals are: Clinton – 27, Obama – 40.

These numbers seem to indicate that Obama has the best chance to pick up more electoral college votes from these swing states.

Even if we broaden our definition of a swing state to include any state that has been mixed in the presidential voting anytime in the last four elections, Obama still beats Clinton, 71 to 57.

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Hillary Clinton came to her ancestral home of Scranton this morning armed not with a stump speech, but with a simple declaration: I understand you, because I’m one of you.

Who is Hillary and where is she actually from? This whole “I’m one of you” lines, it seems to me as if she used it in New York, in Arkansas, and probably other places as well.

It seems to me that the only place Hillary can claim to understand the people, would be a room full of politicians. She is a full blown politician, and to say that she can associate with any group of real people would be a mistake.

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But let me list some reasons why I don’t think she will be elected. If I’m lucky, this blog will endure until 2008

The big one is that most people said in the exit polls yesterday that morals were a big issue. And I think the Hillary Clinton is going to have a really tough time making a case why she promotes moral values better than the next candidate. Another reason, is that she is going to have a hard time convincing a lot of Americans that she has enough qualifications to be elected President. She has only been elected to the Senate in New York just a couple of years now, and I don’t think that she is going to win based on the issues.

Her only chance is to make the non-issues issues. Like that fact that she would be the first woman President, and foo like that. If she can make that center stage, then she will have an easier time convincing voters.

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