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Dealing with football losses

Jacob — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 15:50:03 +0000

I saw this police beat under the heading, Disorderly Conduct:

Oct. 11: A University of New Mexico football player, unhappy with the outcome of the game, had to be restrained by his coach and fellow players and helped onto the bus after kicking a door.

Has this kid never lost before, or was he happy with the outcomes of those games? Seriously, if you are going to go to Provo to play a top-10 football team, there is one outcome that should be expected more than others: BYU wins. I know this must be a less-desireable outcome for New Mexico—it might even make a few unhappy.

But most people don’t have to be restrained when they are unhappy. Most people don’t go kicking doors.

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CSU kicker breaks arm

Jacob — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 18:36:18 +0000

I just read from the Reporter Herald that Colorado State (football) kicker Jason Smith broke his arm, and he won’t be able to play in the game verses Colorado University.

I’ve seen other football players play with casts and be just fine. My question is, why would it matter if a kicker has a broken arm? For one thing, a kicker shouldn’t need his arm to kick. Secondly, a kicker should never be touched on the field.

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Hawaii’s Sugar Bowl loss hurts BYU football

Jacob — Wed, 02 Jan 2008 09:08:21 +0000

On the first day of 2008, Georgia football beat Hawaii in the sugar bowl, 41-10. Normally, a team from the a conference like that WAC isn’t even invited to play in a BCS like the Sugar Bowl. However, Hawaii’s undefeated season won them that rare opportunity this year, even though they never played an opponent that was nationally ranked.

Had Hawaii won, it would have made a strong argument that any team that can go undefeated should go to a big-time bowl. Hawaii’s loss, however, suggests that a football program needs to do more than simply go a season without loosing. Consider this Sugar Bowl story quote from Rivals.com writer Steve Megargee:

Usually when a top team from a BCS conference faces an upstart from a less established league, the BCS program is going to win. Even in a year as crazy as this one.

BYU isn’t one of those teams blessed to belong to a BCS conference. In order for BYU to ever play in a bowl games like the Sugar Bowl, BYU will have to be ranked as one of the very top football teams in the country (probably top-10). That ranking will be even more difficult now that Hawaii, ranked number 10 before their loss, has shown that simply being undefeated isn’t proof of a great football team.

BYU is going to have to do more than play great and win all their games. BYU will have to do that against other teams that are considered great.

Good news comes from the fact that even though the BYU’s Mountain West Conference isn’t a BCS conference, 4 of the 5 teams from the conference that played in various (smaller) bowl games won those games.

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BYU in the Vegas Bowl

Jacob — Fri, 07 Dec 2007 08:37:41 +0000

BYU will play UCLA in the 2007 Las Vegas Bowl. BYU comes into the bowl with a 10-2 record, finishing first in the Mountain West Conference after defeating every other team in the conference. UCLA comes to the bowl with a 6-6 record, finishing 5th in the Pac-10 conference.

Interestingly, this will the the second meeting of the two teams this year. One of BYU’s two losses on the season was at UCLA when the cougars lost 17 to 27. This means that BYU will have time to revenge the loss from earlier in the season.

BYU and UCLA will meet again in the 2008 football season.

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BYU will eat Oregon in Las Vegas

Jacob — Mon, 04 Dec 2006 11:17:12 +0000

Even duck luck in Las Vegas isn’t going to keep the University of Oregon from being just another course on BYU’s dominating dinner plate this season. While Oregon has 7 wins, they have been generally pathetic:

They beat Stanford, but so did just about everyone else.

They beat Fresno State, who couldn’t even find a winning record in the WAC.

They didn’t lose to Oklahoma in what is widely regarded as the most controversial officiating of football this year. It really should have been Oklahoma’s game.

Oregon gains a few cents in the credible wins bank with a win over Arizona State, who did have a 7-5 overall season, but still couldn’t find a winning record in conference play.

The most impressive win maybe was over UCLA, who found Oregon at the beginning of their tough loosing streak.

A win over Portland State, a division I-AA school, hardly even counts as a win.

Oregon’s last win came a month ago over Washington, who by the way, was Stanford’s only victory on the season.

When the bowl game is finally done, Oregon is going to wish that what happened in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

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Why BYU will beat Utah

Jacob — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 11:06:16 +0000

Because I won’t be there to see it. The last two times BYU beat Utah in football were 2000 and 2001, which were the two seasons that I served my mission in Romania. My freshman year, 1999, BYU lost.

This year I’m in Oregon studying, which means that BYU will probably win because once again I won’t be there to see it.

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Who will BYU play in the Las Vegas Bowl

Jacob — Sun, 19 Nov 2006 08:42:47 +0000

The following article is from 2006. Click here for 2007 Las Vegas Bowl information. In 2009, BYU will play Oregon State in the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl.

I’m not all knowing when it comes to football bowl games, but I do know enough to try and guess. The number 4 team from the Pac-10 will go to the Las Vegas Bowl to play BYU. It could be any of these teams: Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State, and Washington State.

I used some win possibilities from teamrankings.com to find percentage possibilites that each team would have a 4th place conference record.

Oregon would be a possibility if they beat Oregon State next week. Even if they lost to Oregon, they would still be a possibility as long as both UCLA and Arizona lose their final games. This case has a 69% chance of occurring.

Oregon State would be a possibility only if they lost to Oregon next week. This case has a 50% chance of occurring.

UCLA would be a possibility if they beat USC in two weeks. They would still be a possibility even if they lost to USC, provided that Arizona and Oregon also loose their games. This case has a 43% chance of occurring.

Arizona would be a possibility if they beat Arizona State next week. Even if they lost to Arizona State, they would still be a possibility provided that UCLA and Oregon lose. This case has a 69% chance of occurring.

Arizona State would have a possibility only if they beat Arizona and Oregon lost and UCLA lost. This case has only a 19% chance of occurring.

Washington State is a possibility only if Oregon, UCLA, and Arizona all lose their final conference games. This case has only a 19% chance of occurring. This is the same case as Arizona State above, the difference being that Washington State doesn’t play in any more games so their fate is sealed on others.

If Oregon beats Oregon State, then up to four teams would be in 3rd place in the conference and could be headed to the Sun Bowl. Assuming that all of the third place teams have equal chance at being invited to the Sun Bowl, and assuming that each team with a fourth place conference record had an equal chance at being invited to the Las Vegas Bowl (which isn’t really true because the Bowl tends to like some teams more than others) then the chance that BYU will play each team turns out to be:

Oregon: 23%
Oregon State: 19%
Arizona: 33%
Arizona State: 4%
UCLA: 16%
Washington State: 4%

The difference between these percentages and the case percentages above, is that these count the possibility that the team will go to the Las Vegas Bowl, not the possibility that a certain set of game outcomes will happen. For example, the case that Oregon and Arizona lose while UCLA win is only 6% probable, but if it happens, UCLA will be the only team with a fourth place conference record and would go to the Las Vegas Bowl. The case that all of Oregon, UCLA, and Arizona all lose is more probable (19%) but if it happens, there are 4 different teams that would tie for a fourth place conference record, and if they all have equal probability of being chosen, then the 19% gets divided four ways not really making it so any of those teams are more probable than the rest.

If however, both the Sun bowl and the Las Vegas Bowl take the overall team record into consideration when choosing a team to invite to the Bowl, and chooses the third and fourth place conference teams respectively with the best overall record, then the percentage breakdown goes more like this:
Oregon: 10% (if Oregon wins they will go to the Sun Bowl)
Oregon State: 33%
Arizona: 33%
Arizona State: 10%
UCLA: 14%

Anyway, this may all seem like throwing numbers up on a wall like spaghetti to see if it sticks, and you may be right. But I would guess that the chance of seeing a BYU verses Arizona rematch is in the mix among other possibilites.

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BYU delivers a decimation to Wyoming

Jacob — Fri, 10 Nov 2006 06:13:59 +0000

BYU football seemed unstoppable tonight with their 55-7 win over Wyoming tonight. Both teams had the midas touch: BYU turning everything to gold and Wyoming turning everything to mufflers.

BYU turned things up a few degrees showing that they are indeed a top 25 team. BYU did more during the first half of play than many teams hope for in a full fame. By the time the teams walked into the locker room at half time, BYU held a 31-0 lead; especially impressive as Wyoming hasn’t scored 31 points in any half of any game this year, and only scored more than 31 points total in two games this year. Fortunately, Wyoming couldn’t mount any sort of comeback, only scoring once in the final few minutes of the game.

Particularly spectacular was the first drive of the game which started with a 84 yard kickoff return that almost was returned for a touchdown. Also great was the 77 yard punt return by McKay Jacobson that was returned for BYU’s last touchdown of the game.

With the win, BYU improves to 8-2, 6-0 MWC. The win guarantees BYU at least a share of the conference title, and almost certainly a trip to the Las Vegas bowl.

BYU gets the weekend off before facing New Mexico at home on the 18th. If BYU wins that game, they will have won the conference title outright. The Mountain West Conference Commissioner will be on hand to present the championship trophy should the Cougars win.

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BYU football firesides

Jacob — Wed, 08 Nov 2006 06:55:07 +0000

I heard some rumors about the BYU football team holding firesides the night before football games, where ever they go.

I was wondering about the reasons for doing these firesides, and what advantages they might give the team on the field. After the Air Force verses BYU football game a couple of weeks ago, I sent an email into the KSL post-game call-in show asking about these firesides. You can listen to the two minute excerpt from the show (or the full show mp3):

MP3 excerpt of radio commentation about football firesides

The radio hosts say that Bronco holds the firesides because it is the right thing to do.

A few days later on the Bronco Mendenhall radio show (full show mp3), my email gets mentioned again, and Bronco explains all about the firesides, why they do them, and how great they are. You can also listen to the 4 minute excerpt of the show:

Bronco explains about football firesides – MP3

Bronco explains that the firesides are done to help fulfill the spiritual needs of his players, their families, and to give back to the community. They also comment on how talented the players are off the field and just how spiritual the firesides are.

Now after a couple of radio mentions, the community seems to be really interested. During the Colorado State post-game call-in show (full audio MP3), several people asked or mentioned these firesides. Bronco talks a little bit more about it. The hosts had recently attended their first fireside, and they also had a lot to say about it. They also give out over the air the locations for the future firesides. Here are a couple of the excerpts from the show, totaling about 5 and a half minutes:

Various fireside comments – MP3

It seems amazing to me how much attention these firesides are getting and how well they are received. I hope that they will help spread the Gospel and also that they may be used as a missionary tool.

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BYU Cougars are ranked 25th

Jacob — Sun, 05 Nov 2006 20:50:34 +0000

The BYU football team has finally broke into an elite group of football teams with the term, “ranked.” The associated press polls which ranks the top 25 college football teams were released this morning, and BYU just barely squeezed into the 25th spot. This is after the Cougars have won the last 6 games straight and every conference game they have played.

If the Cougars win any of their next three games, then they will do no worse than at least share the conference title. If they win any two of their next three games, then they will be the conference champion outright.

At this point, a trip to the Las Vegas bowl seems like a done deal. The Las Vegas bowl gets first pick from the conference, and after a BYU sell-out crowd last year, they will certainly want to pick BYU again this year.

The final games this year are Wyoming and New Mexico at home, followed by the Holy War at Utah.

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