“The states that I’ve won total 300 electoral votes,” she told about 300 people in a high school gymnasium in Maysville, the birthplace of the actor George Clooney. “The question is who can win 270 electoral votes? My opponent has won states totaling 217 electoral votes.” (Source: New York Times)

Additionally, Clinton discounts Obama’s wins in red states: states that traditionally vote republican, such as Utah, Idaho, Texas, and others.

While I believe Clinton’s claims are somewhat silly, I’ll humor the idea for just a moment to do some of my own math.

There are 8 states who have, in the last four presidential elections, voted for the republican candidate twice, and the democratic candidate twice. These states are: Nevada, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Ohio. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_states_and_blue_states)

Now if we consider these 8 swing states, the number of electoral college votes each of these states contributes toward the general presidential election, and the democratic candidate who had the most popular vote, we arrive at these numbers:

• Nevada, 5 votes, won by Clinton
• Louisiana, 9 votes, won by Obama
• Arkansas, 6 votes, won by Clinton
• Mississippi, 11 votes, won by Obama
• Tennessee, 11 votes, won by Clinton
• Kentucky, 8 votes, yet to be determined
• West Virginia, 5 votes, won by Clinton
• Ohio, 20 votes, won by Obama

The totals are: Clinton – 27, Obama – 40.

These numbers seem to indicate that Obama has the best chance to pick up more electoral college votes from these swing states.

Even if we broaden our definition of a swing state to include any state that has been mixed in the presidential voting anytime in the last four elections, Obama still beats Clinton, 71 to 57.

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Please remember and take the time to vote. If you haven’t voted yet, and you have the next 30 minutes free, I suggest voting now–don’t put it off any more. Even if you haven’t reviewed all the issues, at least vote on the few issues you know about.

For those of you in Oregon, remember that it is too late to mail your ballot, that you will have to drop it off at a collection site by 8pm tonight.

I would also encourage you to make sure you vote Ron Saxton. He has pledged to put partisan politics behind and work not for any particular political party, but for Oregon. Oregon needs change, and Ron Saxton will get it done (or you can elect someone else next time).

Oh, and the whole measure 45 thing about term limits for state legislators… vote that down please. Term limits may have a place on the national scene, but local politicians don’t really carry huge names or budgets (like national politicians do), so it is more important that we allow experienced representatives to use their experience in office. Besides, we already have term limits… if someone has been in office too long, then we just vote for someone else. At least that is what the Hillsboro Argus said, and I agree.

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I think that certain organizations know they have a viewer base that strongly agrees with their political views. Therefore, the more encouragement these groups give to their viewers to vote, the more votes will be cast in the direction they would prefer.

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